We’ve got Thanksgiving football on the horizon, my friends.
Two games starting early in the day on Thursday after you’ve eaten your body weight in roast turkey, taters that are mashed, and sweet/succulent HAM? Is there anything better? By 1:00 PM EST on Thanksgiving I plan to be gravy-stained, at least partially nude horizontal, and uncomfortably stuffed for a back-to-back NFL slate.
Let’s TCOB (take care of business) before the holiday hits. It’s fantasy football time!
1. Patrick Mahomes has been a fantasy bust.
It’s not all Mahomes but it’s true, and the Chiefs offense has a serious problem on their hands.
Everyone’s been dissecting it today after their loss last night, but it’s not that hard to diagnose: all Chiefs receivers not named Travis Kelce are trash. If defenses dry-hump Kelce up and down the field keeping the ball away from him then the Chiefs are certifiably fucked. That’s really all it is. Forcing Mahomes to throw it to Z-tier players like Kadarius Toney and Justin Watson is the recipe to shut them down and apparently other teams have caught on because the Chiefs haven’t scored a single point in the second half in their last 3 games. That’s 6 quarters of football, zero points, and four turnovers. This is due in large part to his receivers’ inability to catch the football – 26 drops this year, the most in the league.
Mahomes owners are left searching for answers. He started out fairly strong with three straight 20+ point performances in Weeks 1-3. Since then, he’s gone over 20 fantasy points just once. I know it’s Patrick Mahomes so he gets some leeway, but it’s been a putrid season and if it was anyone else they’d be approaching benchable territory. He’s QB8 on the season, which is a letdown so far.
Turnover on downs. Eagles ball!
📺: #PHIvsKC on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/f0JSux0GFT pic.twitter.com/55KEaDMeb1— NFL (@NFL) November 21, 2023
2. The Steelers fired Matt Canada but it doesn’t change the fact that Kenny Pickett isn’t the guy.
We all know a band-aid move when we see one, made solely for optics. Somehow they’re 6-4 but the Steelers have stunk out loud this year on offense. From my vantage point, it’s clear now that they’re severely hampered by Kenny Pickett, and I’m not overly confident that the next OC will be able to have any success with him at quarterback. See for yourself:
Every single Kenny Pickett pass attempt that went beyond the sticks today pic.twitter.com/srmjDt4aj2
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) November 20, 2023
I wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I’ve seen enough to make the call: he stinks. They have an Ekeler-lite running back in Jaylen Warren now that Najee Harris has been relegated to Plod Patrol (where he belongs). They have talent at receiver with Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, and they have a promising young tight end in Freiermuth that’s just getting healthy and was TE 14 and TE8, respectively, in his first two seasons. Unfortunately, 181 passing yards/game isn’t gonna cut it and Mike Tomlin has seen enough to make the first of several possible changes. Next up on the chopping block has to be Kenny Pickett.
3. I was wrong about the Jaguars offense. I’m still not 110% sure about the Jaguars offense, but The Tennessee Titans might just be the league’s slumpbusters. I was down big on Trevor Lawrence heading into this week but he had a stellar week, 24/32 for 262 yards and 2 TDs to go with 17 yards on the ground and 2 rushing TDs. He desperately needed a big week and he responded with 4 total touchdowns and 32.2 fantasy points, good enough for QB1 overall. It was a bounce-back for the ages and Calvin Ridley reemerged for 7 catches, 103 yards, and 2 TDs with his friend Zay Jones acting as springboard.
Calvin Ridley in 3 games with Zay Jones this season:
▫️ 8 catches, 101 yards, 1 TD, 24.1 FP
▫️ 7 catches, 122 yards, 20.6 FP
▫️ 7 catches, 102 yards, 2 TD, 31.1 FPIn 7 games without Jones, Ridley has under 15 fantasy points, 1 total TD and just 1 game over 40 receiving yards.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 20, 2023
4. We’re back this week after a Dolphins bye. Still chasing history!
5. Gus Edwards is this year’s version of 2022 Jamaal Williams. If you weren’t aware, that is a delicious little compliment (Jamaal Williams scored 17 TDs last year). Gus Edwards now has 10 touchdowns, 9 in his last 5 games, and is RB5 overall on the year. Can we take a moment and appreciate this stretch for our sweet boy? Absolute touchdown factory.
Gus Edwards has more rushing TDs than Christian McCaffrey this season but the mainstream media will never tell you that
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 17, 2023
6. Joe Burrow is out for the season and I wouldn’t blame anyone for selling Ja’Marr Chase. Looking at it from a broad standpoint, Garrett Wilson, a preseason top-10 WR, was in a similar conundrum with Zach Wilson at quarterback and he’s currently WR29 on the year. Chris Olave, while a tier below Chase, is just WR20. Quarterbacking matters and I know Chase is still inside the top-10 as of right now at WR7, but I don’t know how he continues to put up top-10 numbers with Jake Browning at quarterback. An otherwise top-10 guy’s value is damaged when the quarterback situation takes a step back. Obviously he’s a valuable commodity in dynasty leagues so it’s worth waiting for Burrow to return, but if you’re in a redraft and you can package him in and get 2 top-20ish guys in return, my guess is the depth will outweigh the frustration that’s bound to come your way in Burrow’s absence.
7. I wasn’t fully in on CJ Stroud leading up to this week. There, I said it. I’m not proud of it, I may have even uttered the words “I need to see it for a few more weeks before I’m there” but I am there. That’s my confession.
CJ Stroud is elite. I like to slow play that and he didn’t have his best game on Sunday (the 3 INTs were yucky) but he’s forced my hand. CJ Stroud is elite. This isn’t even a great roster and they had the second-worst odds to win the Super Bowl heading into this season (+26000). It’s a brand new head coach in his first season, no one thought much of them heading into this year (their win total was set at 5.5). I don’t say this because I think they win the Super Bowl, but I’m telling you all of these things to nail home the point: No one thought they would be worth a shit in 2023 and many had Bryce Young as Rookie of the Year.
Enter: CJ Stroud. The Panthers have to be kicking themselves and what a rookie season we’re seeing. He’s elevating every single player in that offense to a point that Tank Dell, a third-round pick, is a must-start fantasy player now. That’s rare! He has Nico Collins as an actual viable WR2. Devin Singletary is gashing defenses like it’s 2021 all over again. This is all thanks to CJ Stroud and I’d like to announce to the world, I’m there.
8. I’ve softened on Justin Herbert. I’ve always been fairly vocal in my stance that Herbert is slightly overrated and I’ll stand by that. I still think he goes full bonehead at times and makes bad decisions but his arm strength and general talent usually outweigh the bad. I previously mentioned that he doesn’t have the clutch gene and lacks killer instict, but one man can only do so much. In my pursuit of this take, I’ve actually watched a fair amount of the Chargers this year, more than in previous years. The conclusion: Herbert isn’t the problem. I’ve shifted my ire from Herbert to his dipshit coach and his incompetent teammates.
Brandon Staley might’ve overstayed his welcome. This is the behavior of a man that feels his job security fading away.
“You can stop asking that question.”
Chargers HC Brandon Staley wasn’t happy with this reporter 😳pic.twitter.com/RlXahxASHL
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 19, 2023
I gotta say, it’s a weird place to draw the line when you just gave up almost 400 yards to the Packers to fall to 4-6. Not to mention your most important defensive player, Joey Bosa, is likely headed to IR with a shit foot. He has an uncanny knack for losing games and he’s squandering the best years of Justin Herbert’s career.
9. Zach Wilson is finally, mercifully benched and Jets skills players might just be back on the table. I previously mentioned Garrett Wilson’s underwhelming 2023 campaign, but this gives me a strange flutter of hope that he might sneak back into the top-20 with a few strong games. Semi-palatable QB play is all that really needs to take place for Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall to regain their relevance.
OH NO ZACH WILSON pic.twitter.com/W6j6BMhYav
— Bussin’ With The Boys (@BussinWTB) November 19, 2023
10. It’s the DeVito show in New York now, baby. The Giants absolutely embarrassed the Commanders on their own field and Tommy DeVito actually looked good! He threw two passing TDs to Saquon Barkley and it turns out that incorporating your generationally talented running back leads to good results. Saquon had 14 carries for 83 yards, an encouraging line, and also had 4 catches for 57 yards and 2 scores. DeVito’s final stats were solid, 18 for 26 for 243 and 3 TDs.
10/10 celebration pic.twitter.com/iYCXlRJlyx
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) November 20, 2023
11. Tony Pollard scored a touchdown. This doesn’t make him any less of a fantasy bust, but it’s good to see him finally get there. 12 carries for 61 yards and a TD. He’s gonna need an absolutely ridiculous 6 week stretch to make up for his lack of production, but maybe things are trending upward…
Since Week 9 among 47 qualifying backs:
Tony Pollard
3RD in explosive run rate
8TH in missed tackles forced/attempt
16TH in yards after contact/attempt pic.twitter.com/XgtkOJ0sQh— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 21, 2023
12. Motion to strike from the record: any advice that I gave regarding Quentin Johnston. We’re officially done with QJ here at the Fantasy Football Boys fantasy department.
It is so over.
— Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz (@LeBatardShow) November 19, 2023
More on this in waivers…
Week 11 Win The Waiver Wire sponsored by Applebees:
(These are in no particular order, pick who you like/need/is available and go WIN THE WAIVER WIRE!)
- Zach Charbonnet – If you stashed him, GOOD. If not, check and see. Kenneth Walker III sustained an oblique injury and was already ceding some touches to Charbonnet. He’s the new clear RB1 that should be rostered in all formats.
- AJ Dillon – AJ Dillon’s touches should skyrocket with Aaron Jones out for the foreseeable future. He didn’t look particularly explosive early in the season when Jones was out, but the increase in volume + red zone carries are tempting. Another backup thrust into the RB1 role due to injury.
- Tutu Atwell – Remember when Cooper Kupp missed the start of the year and Tutu Atwell was putting up top-15ish numbers? Well, Kupp is out again and Tutu Atwell should be available.
- Isaiah Likely – Mark Andrews is out, so Likely is the direct replacement. He’s only got 9 catches this year, but he showed flashes last year and he’s in line for more work.
- Odell Beckham Jr. – If you’re thin at and need some help with byes/injuries, OBJ has had a really nice stretch recently. He’s compiled three straight games in double digit fantasy points scored and with Mark Andrews out, I expect OBJ to continue to be involved.
- Jalen Guyton – The concerns surrounding Quentin Johnston were all valid. This is the painful reality and you can comfortably move on from him. Jalen Guyton is the next man up with Joshua Palmer still sidelined. We know Quentin Johnston isn’t the guy to assume that role, so it’s worth a try with Guyton as the WR2 in that Herbert-led offense.
- Noah Brown – He missed this past week with an injury, but I’m investing in the Texans offense, specifically the receivers. He’s WR8 from week 8 onward.
- Ty Chandler – Alexander Mattison looked a little better on Sunday (18 carries for 81 yards), but he also lost a fumble and Ty Chandler was super efficient. Chandler ran 10 times for 73 yards and caught all 4 targets for 37 in a backup role.
- Tyler Allgeier – still the clear RB2 in Atlanta and Arthur Smith has been known to get wacky. Plus, the upside he showed last year still lingers.
- Jayden Reed – Just 4 catches for 46 yards, but with Aaron Jones out the Packers got creative with him. He ran for 46 yards and a TD on Sunday which makes him an interesting piece in that offense should they utilize him as a runner.
Whatever you do, make sure your lineups are all set before the festivities begin. Games start at 12:30 EST on Thanksgiving so before you start shoveling turkey into your face just do it. Injuries are piling up, so it’s imperative that you Win the Waiver Wire. Best of luck out there, Happy Thanksgiving!